2012 Chief Executive Election Tracking Surveys (2012 First Round)Back


| Research Background | Results Summary | Team Members | Contact Information | Detailed Findings |


Research Background

Co-sponsored by several media institutions including Now News, AppleDaily, Ming Pao and SCMP, the 2012 Chief Executive election tracking surveys have been conducted on a weekly basis since 16 January, 2012. It aims at understanding citizens' support rate towards the three Chief Executive candidates (i.e. Albert Ho Chun Yan, Henry Tang Ying Yen and Leung Chun Ying) as well as tracking their trends.

The research instrument used in this study was designed by the POP Team, whilst fieldwork operations and data analysis were also conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside party. In other words, POP was given full autonomy to design and conduct the survey, and POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 66.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.



Results Summary

Results of Individual Candidates

 

Support rate

Question Number

Suitability rating

Question Number

Leung Chun Ying

45.9%

[leungQ1]

55.6

[leungQ2]

Henry Tang Ying Yen

29.8%

[tangQ1]

47.2

[tangQ2]

Albert Ho Chun Yan

13.0%

[hoQ1]

35.8

[hoQ2]


Results of 3-in-1 mode

[A1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow and the candidates are the following three people, who will you choose? (「Henry Tang Ying Yen」, 「Leung Chun Ying」 and 「Albert Ho Chun Yan」 in random order, choose one only)

 

Frequency

Percentage

Leung Chun Ying

439

42.9

Henry Tang Ying Yen

303

29.7

Albert Ho Chun Yan

93

9.1

None of the above

104

10.2

Don't Know/Hard to Say/Abstain from voting

82

8.1

Total

1022

100.0



Team Members

Research Director :
Robert Ting Yiu Chung

Assistant Director :
Karie Ka Lai Pang

Research Executive :
Frank Wai Kin Lee

Data Analysis :
Edward Chit Fai Tai and Kelvin Chung Ho Yu


2012 First Round  

Results of Individual Candidates (note: the order of Henry Tang Ying Yen, Leung Chun Ying and Albert Ho Chun Yan is randomized by computer)

[TangQ1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow, do you support or oppose to having Henry Tang Ying Yen in becoming the Chief Executive before considering other candidates? (Interviewer probe intensity)

 

December 2011

January 2012

 

Frequency

Percentage

Frequency

Percentage

Very much support

34

6.6

56

5.5

Quite support

101

19.9

249

24.3

Half-half

112

22.1

242

23.6

Quite oppose

123

24.2

268

26.2

Very much oppose

85

16.7

155

15.1

Don't know/Hard to say

54

10.5

53

5.2

Total

509

100.0

1022

100.0


[TangQ2] Please rate on a scale of 0-100 marks, the suitability of Henry Tang Ying Yen in becoming the Chief Executive, 0 marks represents definitely unsuitable while 100 marks represents definitely suitable, 50 marks represents half-half. How many marks will you give Henry Tang Ying Yen?

 

October 2011

November 2011

December 2011

January 2012

Mean

43.6

44.2

46.1

47.2

Sampling error of rating

+/-2.2

+/-1.4

+/-2.1

+/-1.5

Median

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

Number of raters

487

987

486

981


[LeungQ1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow, do you support or oppose to having Leung Chun Ying in becoming the Chief Executive before considering other candidates? (Interviewer probe intensity)

 

December 2011

January 2012

 

Frequency

Percentage

Frequency

Percentage

Very much support

58

11.5

114

11.2

Quite support

194

38.1

354

34.7

Half-half

115

22.6

210

20.5

Quite oppose

78

15.3

199

19.4

Very much oppose

21

4.1

71

7.0

Don't know/Hard to say

43

8.4

73

7.2

Total

509

100.0

1022

100.0


[LeungQ2] Please rate on a scale of 0-100 marks, the suitability of Leung Chun Ying in becoming the Chief Executive, 0 marks represents definitely unsuitable while 100 marks represents definitely suitable, 50 marks represents half-half. How many marks will you give Leung Chun Ying?

 

October 2011

November 2011

December 2011

January 2012

Mean

54.8

55.9

57.8

55.6

Sampling error of rating

+/-1.9

+/-1.2

+/-2.0

+/-1.3

Median

50.0

55.0

60.0

60.0

Number of raters

483

976

485

975


[HoQ1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow, do you support or oppose to having Albert Ho Chun Yan in becoming the Chief Executive before considering other candidates? (Interviewer probe intensity)

 

January 2012

 

Frequency

Percentage

Very much support

17

1.7

Quite support

116

11.3

Half-half

193

18.9

Quite oppose

375

36.7

Very much oppose

217

21.2

Don't know/Hard to say

103

10.1

Total

1022

100.0


[HoQ2] Please rate on a scale of 0-100 marks, the suitability of Albert Ho Chun Yan in becoming the Chief Executive, 0 marks represents definitely unsuitable while 100 marks represents definitely suitable, 50 marks represents half-half. How many marks will you give Albert Ho Chun Yan?

 

January 2012

Mean

35.8

Sampling error of rating

+/-1.4

Median

40.0

Number of raters

939


Results of 「3-in-1」 mode

[A1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow and the candidates are the following three people, who will you choose? (「Henry Tang Ying Yen」, 「Leung Chun Ying」 and 「Albert Ho Chun Yan」 in random order, choose one only)

 

9-11/1/2012

16-19/1/2012

 

Frequency

Percentage

Frequency

Percentage

Henry Tang Ying Yen

161

31.3

303

29.7

Leung Chun Ying

216

42.0

439

42.9

Albert Ho Chun Yan

45

8.8

93

9.1

None of the above

80

15.6

104

10.2

Don't know/Hard to say/Abstain from voting

12

2.3

82

8.1

Total

514

100.0

1022

100.0



News coverage from media institutes
Appledaily: News coverage on 21 January, 2012  
Ming Pao: News coverage on 21 January, 2012  
SCMP: News coverage on 21 January, 2012  
Now News: To be provided soon

| Research Background | Results Summary | Team Members | Contact Information | Detailed Findings |