HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack


Press Release on January 15, 2013

| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcement

(1) POP will conduct instant survey on CE’s policy address

 

As in previous years, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey after the Chief Executive delivers his policy address tomorrow (January 16, 2013). Results will be announced on the next day (January 17), after which POP will conduct follow-up surveys which would be released in due course. If individual media would like to obtain the results of our instant survey through sponsorship on the day that the Policy Address is announced, please contact us today, so that we can make special arrangements.

 

(2) “New Year Rally” video record for public consumption

POP at the University of Hong Kong uploaded the full set of video record of the New Year Rally to the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). Members of the public are welcome to download the video record from the “New Year Rally Feature page”, and do their own headcount of the Rally. POP also provides all the video clips in higher resolution, available for purchase at production cost. Please go to the website for details.


 

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between January 2 to 9, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey conducted after the 2013 New Year Day shows that popularity of CE CY Leung continues to drop, so does his cabinet in general. Whether his first policy address can turn the tide will soon be known. According to our survey, compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE CY Leung has gone down by 0.2 mark to 48.9 marks, with an approval rate of 31% which is its record low since he was elected as the CE. His net popularity now stands at negative 20 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 63.4 marks, her approval rate 63%, disapproval rate 6%, giving a net popularity of positive 57 percentage points. Latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 57.7 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 13%, giving a net approval rate of positive 41 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.3 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 17%, and his net popularity plunged 10 percentage points down to positive 11 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone down, 2 have gone up and 2 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 14, 7, 6 percentage points and up by 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularity, at negative 25 and 29 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 67.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages of each survey is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2012. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

2-9/1/2013

1,010

67.7%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

17-23/10/12

1-8/11/12

14-22/11/12

1-4/12/12

18-28/12/12

2-9/1/13

Latest change

Sample base

1,021

1,028

1,020

1,006

1,013

1,010

--

Overall response rate

68.2%

65.1%

64.2%

66.2%

65.7%

67.7%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error[8]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

49.1

53.0[9]

52.3

49.2

49.1

48.9+/-1.6

-0.2

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

37%

42%[9]

39%

37%

34%

31+/-3%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

47%

43%[9]

45%

49%

47%

51+/-3%

+4%[9]

Net approval rate

-10%

-1%[9]

-6%

-12%

-13%

-20+/-6%

-7%[9]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

Date of survey

3-7/9/12

4-10/10/12

1-8/11/12

1-4/12/12

2-9/1/13

Latest change [10]

Sample base[10]

577-631

579-584

628-633

619-654

632-665

--

Overall response rate

64.6%

65.8%

65.1%

66.2%

67.7%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [11]

--

Rating of CS Carrie Lam

58.1[12]

60.1[12]

62.2[12]

63.2

63.4+/-1.5

+0.2

Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam

55%

58%

62%

62%

63+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam

14%

12%

12%

9%[12]

6+/-2%

-3%[12]

Net approval rate

41%[12]

46%

50%

53%

57+-5%

+4%

Rating of FS John Tsang

54.3[12]

56.6[12]

58.0

58.6

57.7+/-1.4

-0.9

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

53%

52%

58%[12]

56%

54+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

12%

12%

11%

12%

13+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

41%

40%

47%[12]

44%

41+/-6%

-3%

Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen

49.1

51.2[12]

51.5

53.1

50.3+/-1.9

-2.8[12]

Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

24%

25%

29%[12]

32%

28+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

6%

8%

11%[12]

11%

17+/-3%

+6%[12]

Net approval rate

18%

17%

18%

21%

11+/-5%

-10%[12]

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

Date of survey

1-8/11/12

1-4/12/12

2-9/1/13

Latest change

Sample base [13]

606-669

580-693

619-682

--

Overall response rate

65.1%

66.2%

67.7%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% & error [14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

632

77%[15]

580

76%

676

80+/-3%

+4%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

632

2%

580

2%

676

4+/-2%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

75%[15]

--

74%

--

76+/-4%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

644

59%[15]

670

62%

666

56+/-4%

-6%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

644

11%[15]

670

11%

666

11+/-2%

--

Net approval rate

--

48%[15]

--

51%

--

45+/-5%

-6%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

614

54%

614

56%

652

51+/-4%

-5%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

614

7%[15]

614

8%

652

10+/-2%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

47%

--

48%

--

41+/-5%

-7%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

657

53%[15]

610

48%[15]

642

44+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

657

6%

610

6%

642

7+/-2%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

47%[15]

--

42%

--

37+/-5%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

623

49%[15]

647

48%

619

47+/-4%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

623

12%

647

13%

619

12+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

37%

--

35%

--

35+/-6%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

645

37%

633

36%

673

41+/-4%

+5%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

645

15%

633

14%

673

13+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

22%

--

22%

--

28+/-5%

+6%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

606

20%

615

23%

627

24+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

606

8%

615

7%

627

8+/-2%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

12%

--

16%

--

16+/-4%[16]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

669

31%

646

33%

666

31+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

669

9%[15]

646

12%

666

15+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

22%

--

21%

--

16+/-5%[16]

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

644

37%

646

43%[15]

663

36+/-4%

-7%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

644

24%

646

20%[15]

663

27+/-3%

+7%[15]

Net approval rate

--

13%

--

23%[15]

--

9+/-6%

-14%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

634

26%

693

30%[15]

654

27+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

634

17%[15]

693

19%

654

19+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

9%[15]

--

11%

--

8+/-5%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

640

24%[15]

626

26%

657

23+/-3%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

640

46%

626

45%

657

48+/-4%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

-22%[15]

--

-19%

--

-25+/-6%

-6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

611

19%

646

20%

682

19+/-3%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

611

46%[15]

646

47%

682

48+/-4%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

-27%[15]

--

-27%

--

-29+/-6%

-2%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for Constitutional and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam are 15.8 and 15.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked seventh and eighth respectively.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 48.9 marks, and 31% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 20 percentage point. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 63.4, 57.7 and 50.3 marks, and 63%, 54% and 28% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 57, 41 and 11 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 76 percentage points. The 2nd to 4th places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates positive 45, positive 41 and positive 37 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 5th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 35, positive 28, positive 16, positive 16, positive 9, positive 8, negative 25 and negative 29 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 1 to 4 December, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 9 January, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

9/1/13

The Legislative Council vetoes the motion to impeach Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.

1/1/13

Media continues to report a march in support of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.

30/12/12

A march in support of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.

24/12/12

The target of Government is to provide housing land for producing 20,000 private residential flats.

21/12/12

Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao affirms the work of Chief Executive CY Leung.

20/12/12

Vice-President Xi Jinping affirms the work of Chief Executive CY Leung and his team.

11/12/12

Electricity consumers will face higher bills next year.

10/12/12

Chief Executive CY Leung apologizes for having illegal structure built in his home in the Legislative Council.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

 

Our survey conducted after the 2013 New Year Day shows that popularity of CE CY Leung continues to drop, so does his cabinet in general. Whether his first policy address can turn the tide will soon be known.

 

According to our survey, compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE CY Leung has gone down by 0.2 marks to 48.9 marks, with an approval rate of 31% which is its record low since he was elected as the CE. His net popularity now stands at negative 20 percentage points.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 63.4 marks, her approval rate 63%, disapproval rate 6%, giving a net popularity of positive 57 percentage points. Latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 57.7 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 13%, giving a net approval rate of positive 41 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.3 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 17%, and his net popularity plunged 10 percentage points down to positive 11 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone down, 2 have gone up and 2 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 14, 7, 6 percentage points and up by 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularity, at negative 25 and 29 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (80%)

 

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (63%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (56%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (54%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (51%)

 

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (47%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (44%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (41%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (36%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (23%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (19%)

 

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (31%, 46%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (28%, 44%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (27%, 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (24%, 32%)

 

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (51%)

 

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

--

 


Future Releases (Tentative)

  • January 17, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Policy Address Instant Poll

  • January 22, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Policy Address First Follow-up survey


| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |