HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack
|Press Release on June 24, 2008|
The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 18 and 20 June by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to drop over the last two weeks. Compared to a month ago, his rating has dropped 8.1 marks while his approval rate has dropped 12 percentage points. They are both at record low since he became CE in 2005. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, also compared to a month ago, there is a parallel huge slump of 14 percentage points, now near the level registered at the end of 2006. Of the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, other than for 'government's handling of its relation with the Central Government', people's satisfaction in the remaining four areas has all dropped significantly. Among them, 'maintaining economic prosperity' and 'improving people's livelihood' mark the biggest drop by 15 and 11 percentage points respectively. According to Robert Chung, Director of POP, the controversies surrounding the recent appointment of Under Secretaries and Political Assistants, and the gradual emergence of inflation and livelihood problems, may all have affected the popularity of CE and the government. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 70%.
Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 70.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in mid-June showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 57.9 marks, and 51% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 36% were satisfied, whereas 22% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 65%. The government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom and maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 43% and 42% correspondingly. Meanwhile, a respective of 32% and 28% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood.
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP SITE", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.
In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.
In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.
For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on March 19, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 18 to 20, 2008 while this survey was conducted from June 18 to 20, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to drop over the last two weeks. Compared to a month ago, his rating has dropped 8.1 marks while his approval rate has dropped 12 percentage points. They are both at record low since he became CE in 2005. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, also compared to a month ago, there is a parallel huge slump of 14 percentage points, now near the level registered at the end of 2006. Of the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, other than for 'government's handling of its relation with the Central Government', people's satisfaction in the remaining four areas has all dropped significantly. Among them, 'maintaining economic prosperity' and 'improving people's livelihood' mark the biggest drop by 15 and 11 percentage points respectively. The controversies surrounding the recent appointment of Under Secretaries and Political Assistants, and the gradual emergence of inflation and livelihood problems, may all have affected the popularity of CE and the government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures across different surveys, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."
|News about POP|
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 26, 2008, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest figures on the popularity of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future will be released. Then on June 27, Friday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison. On June 30, Monday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest results of the Handover Anniversary survey.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <firstname.lastname@example.org>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Since 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.
Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments
One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it separately in our press releases of August 22, November 28, December 14 and 27, 2006, April 3, July 3, September 25, December 28, 2007 as well as March 25, 2008. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.
(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments