HKU POP releases HKSAR Anniversary survey and forecasts July 1 rally study arrangementsBack

 
Press Release on June 28, 2013

| Special Announcements | Abstract of Anniversary Survey | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary |Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (HKSAR Anniversary Surveys) |


Special Announcements

(1) Preliminary Report and video clips of “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1 now released

 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong earlier released the Preliminary Report of the “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1. Members of public and media are welcome to read the Chinese report at the “OCLP Deliberation Series” Feature Page of the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) and also at the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). Almost all video clips of the plenary sessions and small group discussions are now available at the feature page for public consumption.

 

(2) Review of HKSAR anniversary

 

POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Releases” section of this press release for more information. Since the figures released today by POP come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted before July 2013, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for HKSAR anniversary stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.

 

(3) Headcount of July 1 Rally

 

POP will conduct a headcount of July 1 Rally participants next Monday, and releases its preliminary results via the “HKU POP SITE” in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rally.




Abstract of Anniversary Survey

POP interviewed 1,047 Hong Kong people between 20 and 25 June, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. As the 16th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 4 percentage points to 33%, which is a record low since 1998. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s positive figure has plunged 8 percentage points whereas the negative figure has gone up by 8 percentage points, giving a net appraisal of negative 2 percentage points, which is the first negative value registered after 2004. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. POP is recently attacked both in the public domain and in cyber space, we hope it is just a matter of misunderstanding. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the survey is 67%.


Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] Since the figures in this release come from the annual survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2013, these yearly figures are good for general reviews of Hong Kong’s development.
[3] The sample size of this survey is 1,047 successful interviews, not 1,047 x 66.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[4] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level”.
[5] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[6] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.



Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP SITE the latest survey results related to the handover anniversary. The two questions are “people’s feeling of becoming a national citizen of China” and “people’s appraisal of the policy of Central Government on Hong Kong”. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:


Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages [7]

20-25/6/2013

1,047

66.9%

+/-3%

[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The survey results are tabulated below:

 

Date of survey

23-26/6/09

18-22/6/10

17-22/6/11

19-25/6/12

20-25/6/13

Latest change

Sample base

1,008

1,009

1,028

1,048

1,047

--

Overall response rate

70.0%

66.7%

68.4%

69.6%

66.9%

--

Finding for each question / Sampling error[8]

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & Error[8]

--

Proud of becoming a national citizen of China

50%

48%

41%[10]

37%[10]

33+/-3%

-4%[10]

Not proud of becoming a national citizen of China

49%

50%

55%[10]

58%

63+/-3%

+5%[10]

Central Government’s HK policies: positive appraisal [9]

53%[10]

53%

34%[10]

38%[10]

30+/-3%

-8%[10]

Central Government’s HK policies: negative appraisal [9]

11%[10]

20%[10]

21%

24%

32+/-3%

+8%[10]

Central Government’s HK policies: net appraisal [9]

42%[10]

33%[10]

13%[10]

14%

-2+/-5%

-16%[10]

Mean value[9]

3.5+/-0.1
(Base 985)

3.4+/-0.1
(Base=974)

3.1+/-0.1[10]
(Base=971)

3.1+/-0.1
(Base=1,012)

2.9+/-0.1
(Base=984)

-0.2[10]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.   The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. 
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that, 33% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 63% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 30% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 32% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 2 percentage points. The mean score is 2.9 marks, meaning close to “half-half”.




Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondent being proud of becoming a national citizen of China and Central Government’s policy on Hong Kong by age:

 

Date of survey: 20-25/6/13

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Proud to be a national citizen of China[11]

 

Yes

20+/-6%
(38)

30+/-5%
(119)

43+/-5%
(192)

34+/-3%
(349)

No

78+/-6%
(150)

67+/-5%
(264)

52+/-5%
(235)

63+/-3%
(649)

Don’t know / hard to say

3+/-2%
(5)

3+/-2%
(13)

5+/-2%
(22)

4+/-1%
(40)

Total

100%
(194)

100%
(396)

100%
(449)

100%
(1,039)


Date of survey: 20-25/6/13

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Appraisal of the Central Government’s
Hong Kong policies [11]

Positive

15+/-5%
(30)

31+/-5%
(122)

36+/-5%
(160)

30+/-3%
(312)

Half-half

35+/-7%
(67)

30+/-5%
(120)

32+/-4%
(144)

32+/-3%
(331)

Negative

47+/-7%
(91)

35+/-5%
(137)

24+/-4%
(107)

32+/-3%
(335)

Don’t know / hard to say

3+/-3%
(6)

4+/-2%
(14)

9+/-3%
(38)

6+/-1%
(59)

Total

100%
(194)

100%
(394)

100%
(449)

100%
(1,036)

Mean value

2.5+/-0.1
(188)

2.8+/-0.1
(379)

3.1+/-0.1
(410)

2.9/-0.1
(977)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 19 to 25, 2012 while this survey was conducted from June 20 to 25, 2013. The two surveys were one year apart, and any of the significant events inside “Opinion Daily” in between might have affected people’s comments for the year past. Thus, this press release would not further select the events from “Opinion Daily”, but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online section.



Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “As the 16th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 4 percentage points to 33%, which is a record low since 1998. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s positive figure has plunged 8 percentage points whereas the negative figure has gone up by 8 percentage points, giving a net appraisal of negative 2 percentage points, which is the first negative value registered after 2004. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. POP is recently attacked both in the public domain and in cyber space, we hope it is just a matter of misunderstanding.”



Future Release (Tentative)

  • July 2, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups


| Special Announcements | Abstract of Anniversary Survey | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary |Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (HKSAR Anniversary Surveys) |