分析評論 Commentary |
| 發放日期 Released data |
分析評論 Commentary |
| 14-Dec-06 | 最新調查顯示，五項信心及信任指標如常保持正面，但對比兩個月前，巿民對特區政府的信任程度就大幅下跌16個百分比，對中央政府的信任程度則明顯下跌7個百分比，兩者都大概跌至曾蔭權在去年接任特首時的水平。由於調查沒有要求被防者提出原因，我們只能從近期發生的事情作出估計。我們推測，近期有關食物安全的問題，程翔事件，以至關於選舉委員會界別分組選舉的討論，都可能削弱了巿民對兩個政府的信任程度。 Our latest findings show that although all five trust and confidence indicators have remained positive, compared to two months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government has plunged by 16 percentage points, while their trust in the Central Government has also dropped significantly by 7 percentage points. People's trust level for the two governments now stands at around the same level as when Donald Tsang became CE last year. Since we did not ask respondents to give reasons to their answers, we can only guess from what have happened lately. To us, it seems that recent incidents of food poisoning, the trial of Ching Cheong, and discussions revolving around the Election Committee Subsector Elections, may all have affected people's trust in the two governments. |
| 7-Nov-06 | 最新調查顯示，五項信心及信任指標保持正面。對比兩個月前，巿民對特區政府的信任程度明顯止跌回升。調查沒有詢問被防者信心上升或下跌的原因，但近期關於銷售稅和最低工資的爭論開始淡化，金融市場活躍但又時有警號，都可能影響各項指標的走勢。 Our latest findings show that all five trust and confidence indicators have remained positive. Compared to two months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government has rebounded. We did not ask respondents to give us their reasons for any rise or drop in confidence, but the subsiding of debates on GST (goods and services tax) and minimum wages, and the growing fluidity of the financial market with occasional warnings, may all have affected the trends of the indicators. |
| 22-Aug-06 | 最新調查顯示，巿民對特區政府的信任程度比兩個月前下跌6個百分比。資料顯示，巿民對特區政府的信任程度在4月下旬達到歷史高點後便開始回落。結合其他民望指標分析，轉捩點很可能出現在6月初至6月中之間。近月發生的事情，包括曾蔭權曾否參與六四活動的問題、七一遊行前後有關民主步伐的討論，以及最近關於銷售稅的爭論，都可能影響巿民對特區政府的信任程度。 Our latest findings show that people's trust in the HKSAR Government has dropped 6 percentage points compared to two months ago. According to our records, people's trust in the SAR Government reached record high in the last ten days of April, and then receded. Analyzed in conjunction with other popularity indicators, the turning point might well have occurred in early to mid-June. Events in recent months, like the discussion on whether Donald Tsang had attended June 4 activities, revived discussions on the pace of democracy before and after the July 1 Rally, and recent debates on the introduction of GST (goods and services tax), may all have eroded people's trust in the SAR Government. |
| 20-Jun-06 | 最新調查顯示，市民對特區及中央政府的信任程度，明顯地從兩個月前的歷史高點或接近歷史高點回落，回復到四個月前的水平，原因暫時未能確定，有待下次分析特首和特區政府民望時再討論。根據本人以往的分析，中央政府愈是寬鬆處理港人治港，便愈能得到香港巿民的信任。 According to our latest findings, people's trust in the local and central governments, however, has significantly retreated from their record high, or almost record high, registered two months ago, to that of four months ago. The reasons are hard to tell, we may be able to say more next time when we know the latest popularity figures of the CE and the SAR Government. According to my previous analysis, when the central government becomes more relaxed with Hong Kong's autonomy, it earns more trust from the people of Hong Kong. |
| 2-May-06 | 五項信任及信心指標在過去兩個月全面上升。巿民對本地政府的信任程度更加上升11個百分比，達到回歸後的新高，非常接近回歸前半年錄得的高峰。 All five indicators of trust and confidence have gone up over the past two months. People's trust in the local government has climbed 11 percentage points to reach record high after the handover, and it is now very near to the historical high registered six months before the handover. |
| 16-Feb-06 | 五項信任及信心指標的正面數值在過去三個月來變化不大，但巿民對特區及中央政府的負面不信任程度則明顯回落。記錄顯示，巿民不信任特區政府的比率，已經由2003年中錄得超過四成半的高峰數字，逐漸回落至現時不甚明顯的水平。百分之八巿民不信任本地政府，是1997年9月以來的新低。不過，巿民信任本地政府的比率，就仍然未及回歸前錄得的數字，政府不可自滿。 The positive figures of the five indicators of trust and confidence have not changed much in the past three months. However, people's negative distrust in the local and central governments has significantly receded. Record shows that people's distrust in the local government reached a record high of over 45% around the middle of 2003, and then subsided gradually to the current rather insignificant level of 8%, which is record low since September 1997. Nevertheless, the government should not be complacent because people’s trust in the local government is still lower than that registered before the handover. |
| 3-Jan-06 | 最新調查數字是在立法會否決政改方案前錄得，五項信任及信心指標之中，巿民對特區及中央政府的信任程度和中國前途的信心，都回落至差不多是去年8月的水平。不過，對香港前途的信心就上升至1997年10月以後的新高；對一國兩制的信心就上升至1998年10月以後的新高。政改爭拗影響最大的，似乎是巿民對中央政府的信任程度，巿民對香港整體發展的信心則好像沒有影響。 Our findings were recorded before Legco vetoed government’s constitutional reform package. Among the five indicators of confidence and trust, people’s trust in the local and central governments, as well as their confidence in China’s future, have all receded to about that in August 2005. People’s confidence in Hong Kong’s future, however, has climbed to record high since October 1997, and their confidence in ‘one country, two systems’ has also climbed to record high since October 1998. The row on constitutional development has apparently taken its toll on people’s trust in the central government, but not their confidence in Hong Kong’s future development. |
| 25-Oct-05 | 五項信任及信心指標近月來繼續上升，顯示特區形勢持續向好。有別於政府表現的滿意程度，巿民對政府的信任程度，是一個比較深層的態度測試。最新調查中有62%被訪市民表示信任特區政府，是回歸後的新高，顯示巿民對特區政府的印象已經改觀。不過，比起回歸前一年錄得的數字，仍然略有不及，政府不可自滿。 All five indicators of confidence and trust have increased, indicating a period of positive governance. The amount of trust people place in different governments reflects an attitude deeper than their general appraisal of government performance. The fact that a record high of 62% since the handover now say they trust the SAR Government reflects a shift in people’s attitude towards the government. Nevertheless, the government cannot afford to become complacent, because the figure is still lower than those registered in the year before the handover. |
| 1-Sep-05 | 在8月底，巿民對特區及中央政府的信任程度，與兩個月前變化不大，基本上保持了轉換特首後的優勢。由於調查是在特首宣佈在9月底率領所有立法會議員訪問珠三角前進行，有關發展的民意效應尚待考證，但相信會是正面居多。 Compared to two months ago, people’s trust in the SAR and Central Governments in late August have not changed much. The thrust of changing the CE has apparently been maintained. Because the survey was conducted before CE's announcement that he would lead all Legco members to visit the Pearl River Delta in late September, the effect of this development on public opinion is yet to be seen, but it would very likely to be on the positive side. |
| 5-Jul-05 | 曾蔭權上任特首後，市民信任特區政府的程度上升12個百分比，對香港前途信心上升10個百分比，回復到回歸初期的水平。巿民對中央政府的信任程度及一國兩制的信心都同步上升，但就只回復至接近2004年底的水平。換言之，從民意走勢而言，特區政府比中央政府在更換特首中得益更多。 After Donald Tsang becomes the CE, people’s trust in the SAR Government increased by 12 percentage points, and their confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased by 10 percentage points, both have gone back to the level registered shortly after the handover. People’s trust in the Central Government and their confidence in ‘one country, two systems’ have also increased, but just nearly as good as that registered at the end of 2004. In other words, judging from public opinion alone, the SAR Government has gained much more than the Central Government in changing the Chief Executive. |
| 4-Jan-05 | 最新調查顯示，市民不信任特區政府的程度，在過去兩個月急升15個百分比，回到半年前的位置。相反，信任中央政府的程度就明顯上升，接近2002年2月錄得的高位，形成強烈對比。巿民對香港及中國前途信心方面，過去兩個月變化不大。以半年結的數字綜合分析，巿民對本地政府的信任、對香港前途及一國兩制的信心，已經回復至2003年七一遊行前的水平，而對中央政府的信任程度，亦已回到雙普選爭拗之前。勢頭能否持續，就要看中央及特區政府如何回應巿民新一浪的訴求了。 Our latest survey shows that people’s distrust in the SAR Government has increased sharply by 15 percentage points, back to that half a year ago. On the contrary, people’s trust in the Central Government has significantly increased, to almost the record high registered in February 2002, giving a stark contrast. There was not much change in people’s confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China. However, if we look at the half-yearly figures on a macro level, people’s trust in the local government, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong and ‘one country, two systems’, have all recovered to that before the July 1 Rally of 2003. People’s trust in the Central Government has also recovered to that before the dispute over universal suffrage broke out. Whether the trends would continue or not depends very much on how the local and central governments would react to people’s new wave of demands. |
| 19-Oct-04 | 最新調查顯示，市民對特區及中央政府的不信任程度在過去兩個月明顯下跌，分別有12及8個百分比。不過，信任程度則沒有明顯提升，顯示不少市民現在是持觀望態度。三年來，市民一直信任中央政府多於特區政府，對中國前途的信心高於香港前途。特區政府應該好好反思。 Our latest survey shows that people’s distrust in the SAR and Central Governments have subsided over the past two months, for 12 and 8 percentage points respectively. However, this does not mean that their trust level has increased, meaning that more people are becoming ambivalent. Over the past three years, Hong Kong people have trusted the Central Government more than the SAR Government, and they have been more confident about China than Hong Kong’s future. This is something our own government should carefully reflect on. |
| 7-Sep-04 | 最新調查顯示，市民對一國兩制的信心、對中央及特區政府的信任程度，都同步回升，似乎已經抵消了人大釋法的影響。市民對特區政府的信任程度，更加回復到接近2002年中的水平。 Our latest survey shows a rebound in people’s confidence in ‘one country, two systems’, and in their trust in both the Central and SAR Governments. The effect brought by NPC’s interpretation of the Basic Law seems to have gone. People’s trust in the SAR Government has almost recovered to that of mid-2002. |
| 6-Jul-04 | 調查在七一遊行前後進行，離開人大釋法後已有一段時間。市民對對特區政府的信任程度，基本上回復到釋法之前，但對中央政府的信任程度，和對一國兩制的信心，則仍未復以前。但從中央官員近日比較溫和的言論看，有關數字有機會在下次的調查中向上調升。 The survey was conducted before the July 1 Rally. It seems that people’s trust in the SAR Government has recovered to that before the interpretation of the Basic Law by Standing Committee of the NPC, which is already some time ago. People’s trust in the Central Government and their confidence in one country two systems, on the other hand, have not recovered. However, judging from the relatively mild statements made by Central Government officials lately, such figures may well rebound in our next round of survey. |
| 20-Apr-04 | 調查在人大釋法後進行，各項信任及信心指標全線下跌，當中跌幅最大的是市民對一國兩制的信心及對特區政府的信任。至於對中央政府的信任程度，則連同『愛國論』的影響，亦累積下跌12個百分比。翻查記錄，1999年6月第一次人大釋法後，市民對一國兩制的信心由61％跌至56％，然後在低位徘徊約半年。今次人大釋法再次逆轉了信心指標的升軌，而絕對信心水平亦低於上次釋法之後。在民望而言，中央及特區政府都付出了沉重的代價。 The interpretation of the Basic Law by NPC has caused all trust and confidence indicators to drop, especially for people's confidence in one country two systems and their trust in the SAR Government. People's trust in the Central Government has also plunged, if we include the previous drop due to the debate of patriotism initiated by Mainland officials, the accumulative effect was a drop of 12 percentage points so far. Going to the records, it was found that people's confidence in one country two systems also dropped from 61% to 56% after NPC's maiden interpretation of the Basic Law in June 1999. It then stayed low for about 6 months. Just like last time, NPC's interpretation this time has reversed the upward trend of people's confidence in one country two systems, and the absolute figure was even lower than that of last time. The Central and SAR Governments have both paid a big price in taking such a move. |
| 2-Mar-04 | 近日由內地要員發動有關愛國的討論，經已明顯動搖香港市民對中央政府的信心。最新調查顯示，市民對特首董建華及特區政府的信任及滿意程度都有上升，對香港、中國、及一國兩制前途信心的樂觀程度保持平穩，但唯獨對中央政府的信任程度，就在兩個月內下跌7個百分比。如果內地要員繼續强調愛國等於愛黨，則中央政府在回歸以來，在香港市民心目中建立的正面形象，將會受到嚴重的衝擊。 The recent controversy on patriotism ignited by authorities in the Mainland has taken its toll, on the Central Government itself. Our latest survey found that Hong Kong people's trust in the Central Government has dropped 7 percentage points in 2 months, in spite of more positive ratings on CH Tung and the SARG. People's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and one country two systems has basically remained unchanged. If our Mainland authorities continue to equate patriotism with loving the Communist Party, it will have a very damaging effect on the image of the Central Government, an image which Beijing has tried so hard to instill among Hong Kong people after the handover. |
| 6-Jan-04 | 除了市民對特區政府的信任程度外，各項指標都已回復到七一及沙士爆發前頗遠的水平。 Other than people's trust in the SAR Government, all indicators have rebounded to a level way before the SARS outbreak and July 1. |
| 14-Oct-03 | 市民對特區政府的信任程度跌至二成半歷史新低，不置可否者接近四成，成為主流意見。由於信任程度相對於滿意程度屬於更深層的政治取態，特區政府有必要從多方面與市民重新建立互信。 One important development lately is the significant drop in people's trust in the SAR Government, to a record low of 25%. The dominant view is now 'half-half', reaching almost 40%. Because people's trust in a government is more deep-rooted than their mere appraisal of its performance, it is high time that the government launched a comprehensive scheme to regain the trust of the people. |
| 2-Sep-03 | 數字顯示，巿民對中港政府的信任程度、對香港前途、和對一國兩制的信心都全面回升，到達今年的高位，而巿民對香港前途的信心比率的淨值亦由負面變成正面，但仍然遠遠落後於對中國前途的信心。巿民對特區政府的信任程度則仍屬負面，繼續落後於對中央政府的信任程度。關於政治團體排名方面，評分都是下跌居多。自由黨明顯是今次的贏家，由5月排名第六跳升至現時排名第二。主要輸家則是民建聯和工聯會，評分分別下跌6.7和5.1分。 Results showed that people's trust in the local and central governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future and in one country, two systems have all rebounded to reach their peaks this year, while their net confidence in Hong Kong's future has also changed from negative to positive, but the figure is still far behind that for China's future. Meanwhile, people's trust in the local government is still negative, far behind that of the central government. As for the ranking of political groups, most of their ratings have dropped. LP is clearly the winner this time, it jumped from the 6th place in May to become 2nd. The major losers are DAB and FTU, they lost 6.7 and 5.1 marks respectively. |
| Jan-99 | 過去一年市民對特區政府的信任程度明顯較去年及過往數年調查下降。表示對香港特區政府信任的比率，由九七年全年平均比率的五成八，下跌至九八年的三成八，下跌兩成；三成半表示信任程度屬一半半，另外兩成則表示不信任。市民對特區政府信任程度的下降，極可能因對政府在處理經濟危機缺乏周詳之法有關。 - |
| Dec-97 | 若比較市民對香港政府及特區政府（即回歸前後的分別）的信任程度，市民對九七回歸前的香港政府是稍勝一籌，按九七年上半年數字，有六成三被訪者信任香港政府，而對特區政府（即九七年下半年平均比率）在下半年的平均信任程度為五成二。 The level of trust in the Hong Kong government before the handover is higher than that in the HKSAR government. A total of 63% of the respondents on average trusted the Hong Kong government in the first half of 1997 while only 52% on average trusted the HKSAR government in the second half. |
| Aug-97 | 八月份，市民對北京中央政府的信任程度達到新高，不信任程度跌至五年來的歷史低點。不過，市民對香港政府的信任程度似乎又每況愈下，對政治及社會狀況的滿意程度比回歸前普遍下降…是特區與內地的距離拉近了？還是未來發展的契機？ By August, people’s trust in the Beijing Central Government has reached a new height, while distrust has fallen to a record low in five years. However, people were not very satisfied with the current social and political conditions, and faith in the local government has further fallen. Is the gap between Hong Kong and mainland closing? Or is it just another turning point? |
| Jul-97 | 在一九九三年開始，本中心研究組就市民對中、英、港、台政府的信任程度進行測試。在四個政府當中，歷年的數據均顯示市民對香港政府較為信任，而且信任程度有逐年上升的趨勢，由九三年的四成七（表示信任港府的全年平均數）上升至九七年的六成三。此上升走勢只在九五年度有例外，當年表示對港府信任的只有四成八，不足被訪者的一半，此結果與較早前提及的彭定康得分及對其施政報告的滿意程度相當吻合。 Starting from 1993, the POP Team has been conducting surveys on people’s trust in the Chinese, British, Hong Kong and Taiwanese governments. Over the years, people had shown the greatest trust in the Hong Kong government. Moreover, their degree of trust was elevated year after year and the average had increased from 47% in 1993 to 63% in 1997, with the year 1995 as the only exception to the upwarding trend. (This result was consistent with the ratings with respect to Patten and his policy addresses.) |
| Oct-96 | 若把市民對中國及台灣政府的信任程度作一比較，可見於九四年十一月前，港人對台灣政府的平均信任程度比對中國政府的高。之後，由九四年尾至九五年尾一段期間內，平均而言，市民對台灣政府的信任程度則下跌至低於中國政府。隨著台灣總統選舉，市民對台灣政府的信任卻又回升。但港人對台灣政府的信任於九六年之前卻不斷下跌，再看市民對香港及英國政府的信任程度。很明顯市民對港府最信任，無論在任何一個時期，對香港政府的信任程度都比對其餘三地政府的為高。對英國政府的信任則介乎九三年八月最高的三成三至九四年十月的一成七之間。 Comparing people’s trust in the Chinese and Taiwanese governments, it could be noted the before November 1994, Hong Kong people on average had more trust in the Taiwanese than Chinese government. However, from the end of 1994 till the end of 1995, the trend was reversed. With the election of the Taiwanese president, increased trust in the Taiwnese government was evident, after which it dropped again. Regarding people’s trust in the Hong Kong and British governments, it is evident that regardless of time, people trusted the Hong Kong government much more than any other governments. Trust in the British government fluctuated between 17% and 33%. |
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